Bird Concept comments on Make more land

[Bird Concept]

I’m trying out making some polls about posts for the Review (using the predictions feature). You can answer by hovering over the scale and clicking a number to indicate your agreement with the claim.

Making more land out of the about 50mi^2 shallow water in the San Francisco Bay, South of the Dumbarton Bridge, would…

...be an environmental disaster.

...be an environmental disaster.

...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.

...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.

...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.

...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.

...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)

...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)

...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035.

...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035.

...all-things-considered, be good for the world.

...all-things-considered, be good for the world.

For some of these questions, I tried to operationalise them to be less ambiguous than Jeff’s original formulation.