-Basically, since predictions are laws of nature, wrong predictions are miracles. We should expect to them to exist but to be rare.
Due to indexical uncertainty, we can always be surprised by low probability events. I don’t see these as evidence of God though.
-Talking about aliens. Infinite hypothesis “God with such attributes exists” can be used only as approximation (that is, basically, our understanding of it). The finite hypothesis “aliens fake us to believe that God with such attributes exists” also can be used only as approximation, (that is our understanding of God + assumption that it is faked by aliens). Thus such approximation is longer and should be given smaller probability.
Around in circles again, but is there a difference this time? Do we agree “fake alien God hypothesis” dominates “infinite God hypothesis”? When using induction? You don’t seem to be disputing it. But is “approximate God” simpler than “fake alien God”? That depends! How good is your approximation of “infinite”? How complex are your aliens?
But if you want to argue for a non-infinite God, that’s OK with me, but even if you convince me, it won’t be the infinite God you have convinced me of, but the finite approximation: Something more powerful than mankind, but not infinitely powerful. Something more knowledgeable than mankind, but not infinitely knowing… this sounds like you’re describing advanced aliens. They’re the same thing. I would then argue that the aliens are the reality and the “infinite God” is the approximation of them made by ignorant humans.
Even I would be willing to call such aliens “gods” given certain conditions, but we’re using your definition of “God”.
Can you convince me of approximately-God aliens? Maybe. My prior is not zero, but like the pet purple dragon from Mars, it would take a lot of evidence to convince me.
Due to indexical uncertainty, we can always be surprised by low probability events. I don’t see these as evidence of God though.
Around in circles again, but is there a difference this time? Do we agree “fake alien God hypothesis” dominates “infinite God hypothesis”? When using induction? You don’t seem to be disputing it. But is “approximate God” simpler than “fake alien God”? That depends! How good is your approximation of “infinite”? How complex are your aliens?
But if you want to argue for a non-infinite God, that’s OK with me, but even if you convince me, it won’t be the infinite God you have convinced me of, but the finite approximation: Something more powerful than mankind, but not infinitely powerful. Something more knowledgeable than mankind, but not infinitely knowing… this sounds like you’re describing advanced aliens. They’re the same thing. I would then argue that the aliens are the reality and the “infinite God” is the approximation of them made by ignorant humans.
Even I would be willing to call such aliens “gods” given certain conditions, but we’re using your definition of “God”.
Can you convince me of approximately-God aliens? Maybe. My prior is not zero, but like the pet purple dragon from Mars, it would take a lot of evidence to convince me.