In several places I’d say you tilt your probability estimates in the most favorable direction to your argument. For example, you underestimate how much evidence the meteorite would give − 1/100th of the earth’s surface destroyed every 1000 years is far too much. There have been 0 humanity-wiping-out events so far, over 1 million-ish years, this does not work out to P=10^-5. In estimating based off of expert opinion you load the intuitive die with “the calculations say” rather than “the physicist says”; calculations are either right or wrong.
I agree that the estimate of 10^-22 is likely too low, but I have a negative reaction to how you’re arguing it.
In several places I’d say you tilt your probability estimates in the most favorable direction to your argument. For example, you underestimate how much evidence the meteorite would give − 1/100th of the earth’s surface destroyed every 1000 years is far too much. There have been 0 humanity-wiping-out events so far, over 1 million-ish years, this does not work out to P=10^-5. In estimating based off of expert opinion you load the intuitive die with “the calculations say” rather than “the physicist says”; calculations are either right or wrong.
I agree that the estimate of 10^-22 is likely too low, but I have a negative reaction to how you’re arguing it.