I’d add that everything in this post is still relevant even if the AGI in question isn’t explicitly modelling itself as in a simulation, attempting to deceive human operators, etc. The more-general takeaway of the argument is that certain kinds of distribution shift will occur between training and deployment—e.g. a shift to a “large reality”, universe which embeds the AI and has simple physics, etc. Those distribution shifts potentially make training behavior a bad proxy for deployment behavior, even in the absence of explicit malign intent of the AI toward its operators.
I’d add that everything in this post is still relevant even if the AGI in question isn’t explicitly modelling itself as in a simulation, attempting to deceive human operators, etc. The more-general takeaway of the argument is that certain kinds of distribution shift will occur between training and deployment—e.g. a shift to a “large reality”, universe which embeds the AI and has simple physics, etc. Those distribution shifts potentially make training behavior a bad proxy for deployment behavior, even in the absence of explicit malign intent of the AI toward its operators.