Btw, since you seem to have quite some baggage, could you reply also if you think AGI could arrive tomorrow at this technological point, and what are your timelines? Do we actually have any time, even if only a few years?
(Baggage? You might be misusing that idiom?) If it happens tomorrow I’d guess it would very likely have be some weird secret project. I’m not aware of enough ideas out there to make AGI. Though I’m not very well-informed. Seems plausible in 5, 10, 20, 50, or 200 years (though of course the longer you go out, the more possible worlds are dominated by more severe civilizational collapse; not clear whether that helps or hurts our chances; generally less resources means less resources that go to “leisure” activities like studying hypothetical future minds).
(Baggage? You might be misusing that idiom?) If it happens tomorrow I’d guess it would very likely have be some weird secret project. I’m not aware of enough ideas out there to make AGI. Though I’m not very well-informed. Seems plausible in 5, 10, 20, 50, or 200 years (though of course the longer you go out, the more possible worlds are dominated by more severe civilizational collapse; not clear whether that helps or hurts our chances; generally less resources means less resources that go to “leisure” activities like studying hypothetical future minds).