I was a super-forecaster. I think my main advantages were 1) skill at
Googling and 2) noticing that most people, when you ask them “Will [an
interesting thing] happen?”, are irrationally biased toward saying
yes. I also seem to be naturally foxy and well-calibrated, but not
more so than lots of other people in the tournament. I did not obsess,
but I tried fairly hard.
Edit: “Foxy” in this context means “knowing many small things instead of one big thing”.
See this pair
(one,
two) of
Overcoming Bias posts by the late Hal Finney.
Source
Edit: “Foxy” in this context means “knowing many small things instead of one big thing”. See this pair (one, two) of Overcoming Bias posts by the late Hal Finney.
Thanks for the link to that. I’m definitely on the foxy end of the spectrum.
I’m curious when Hedgehogs do well. Perhaps in Physics/Maths when they hedgehog on the right idea?