Exactly… the original post was about applying prediction market techniques and other opinion aggregation methods to other types of problems. I was saying that a prediction market is only as good as its eventual adjudication method—we already know, for example, that the Shroud of Turin was radiocarbon dated to long after the death of Jesus, but believers keep coming up with excuses not to change their minds anyway.
The techniques described in the post could be used in isolation; only the last was about non-forecast estimates. I agree that these are much, much tougher than ones with definitive answers. They may need pretty strict filtering of participants, and would be the least accepted.
Exactly… the original post was about applying prediction market techniques and other opinion aggregation methods to other types of problems. I was saying that a prediction market is only as good as its eventual adjudication method—we already know, for example, that the Shroud of Turin was radiocarbon dated to long after the death of Jesus, but believers keep coming up with excuses not to change their minds anyway.
The techniques described in the post could be used in isolation; only the last was about non-forecast estimates. I agree that these are much, much tougher than ones with definitive answers. They may need pretty strict filtering of participants, and would be the least accepted.