In the past, I mostly used the microcovid research page as a reference for me to get numbers that I put into my own Guesstimate model. The reason I didn’t use microcovid directly is that I find it easiest to think independently about the numbers “how likely is it that the people I am coming in contact with have COVID”, “how many people am I coming into contact with during this activity”, and “how likely is a contagious person doing this activity to transmit COVID to me”. I like to have each of those in my head and multiply them by myself.
In the past, I mostly used the microcovid research page as a reference for me to get numbers that I put into my own Guesstimate model. The reason I didn’t use microcovid directly is that I find it easiest to think independently about the numbers “how likely is it that the people I am coming in contact with have COVID”, “how many people am I coming into contact with during this activity”, and “how likely is a contagious person doing this activity to transmit COVID to me”. I like to have each of those in my head and multiply them by myself.