A thing that sticks out is that I don’t actually know who has a good forecasting track record – I know some people have made predictions but those predictions aren’t aggregated anywhere I know that makes it easy to check.
I voted disagree, because at this point there have been plenty of COVID forecasting tournaments hosted by Good Judgement, Metaculus and several 3rd parties. Metaculus alone has 400 questions in the COVID category, a lot of which have 100+ predictions. I personally would find it quite easy to put together a group of forecasters with legibly good track record on COVID, but from working in this space I also do have a sense of where to start looking and who to ask.
A thing that sticks out is that I don’t actually know who has a good forecasting track record – I know some people have made predictions but those predictions aren’t aggregated anywhere I know that makes it easy to check.
I voted disagree, because at this point there have been plenty of COVID forecasting tournaments hosted by Good Judgement, Metaculus and several 3rd parties. Metaculus alone has 400 questions in the COVID category, a lot of which have 100+ predictions. I personally would find it quite easy to put together a group of forecasters with legibly good track record on COVID, but from working in this space I also do have a sense of where to start looking and who to ask.
Ah, good to know.