I’ve used microcovid occasionally, to make sure my intuitive feelings about risk were not completely crazy (and that did cause some updates; notably, putting numbers to staying outdoors had an influence.) I’m not a heavy user, but I do appreciate the work you’ve done!
I’d basically like to see more of the same—update microcovid.org for omicron and keep it going.
(FWIW, I’m in the Netherlands, where we just entered a new lockdown for omicron. So COVID unfortunately isn’t “over”.)
Agreed—I’m struggling to figure out how to apply microcovid estimates in the wake of omicron. Without an adjustment for that, it seems like no other improvements would matter. I would be willing to pay $1000 if microcovid were updated to reflect omicron. (Please agree with my post if you have a similar willingness to pay, and agree with JoachimSchipper’s post if you just generally support updates for omicron but don’t have a similar willingness to pay).
(I’m a little confused as to why it’s not clear that this is the best next step for microcovid, and if anyone has suggestions for making ad-hoc adjustments to use microcovid given omicron, would appreciate them!)
I’ve used microcovid occasionally, to make sure my intuitive feelings about risk were not completely crazy (and that did cause some updates; notably, putting numbers to staying outdoors had an influence.) I’m not a heavy user, but I do appreciate the work you’ve done!
I’d basically like to see more of the same—update microcovid.org for omicron and keep it going.
(FWIW, I’m in the Netherlands, where we just entered a new lockdown for omicron. So COVID unfortunately isn’t “over”.)
Agreed—I’m struggling to figure out how to apply microcovid estimates in the wake of omicron. Without an adjustment for that, it seems like no other improvements would matter. I would be willing to pay $1000 if microcovid were updated to reflect omicron. (Please agree with my post if you have a similar willingness to pay, and agree with JoachimSchipper’s post if you just generally support updates for omicron but don’t have a similar willingness to pay).
(I’m a little confused as to why it’s not clear that this is the best next step for microcovid, and if anyone has suggestions for making ad-hoc adjustments to use microcovid given omicron, would appreciate them!)
My current shitty attempts to adjust manually are here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YtWqgzLDqxSvJDkCi/how-should-we-adjust-microcovid-estimates-for-omicron