One thing I’m surprised I haven’t seen listed yet: Adjustment for boosters (and generally updating the vaccine adjustments, which I think are almost certainly too generous for 1- and 2-dose vaccination, once Omicron is circulating.)
Lately, I have mostly been using Microcovid as a guide for training my intuition about how important the various factors are. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the actual output of the model overall right now, since it doesn’t account for boosters, or for Omicron. I also have a general distrust of some of the model’s simplifying assumptions about how factors interact, although I don’t have anything better to substitute, other than my own intuitive judgement.
One thing I’m surprised I haven’t seen listed yet: Adjustment for boosters (and generally updating the vaccine adjustments, which I think are almost certainly too generous for 1- and 2-dose vaccination, once Omicron is circulating.)
Lately, I have mostly been using Microcovid as a guide for training my intuition about how important the various factors are. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the actual output of the model overall right now, since it doesn’t account for boosters, or for Omicron. I also have a general distrust of some of the model’s simplifying assumptions about how factors interact, although I don’t have anything better to substitute, other than my own intuitive judgement.
Good point, agreed! Here is my (not very good) current attempt to adjust manually: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YtWqgzLDqxSvJDkCi/how-should-we-adjust-microcovid-estimates-for-omicron