If I learn that Russia has started evacuating her cities, I’d rent a car, drive from where I live in the Bay Area to near the California-Oregon border and construct a temporary fallout shelter according to the instructions in Nuclear War Survival Skills.
The most likely (but not particularly likely)nuclear attack this year would involve only a few weapons, probably only one, by Putin as a way to express his disapproval of the countries supplying Ukraine with weapons, and he would with p = .98 choose to target a non-nuclear country (i.e., not the US, the UK or France) to reduce the probability of nuclear retaliation. One of the documents in the archives the Yeltsin administration opened to Western historians was a Soviet plan for the invasion of Western Europe that began with an attack with dozens of nukes on targets in West Germany, the low countries and northern Italy and maybe a few in Scandinavia (mainly on air bases and a few on military headquarters IIRC) and exactly zero targets in France or Britain.
Of course, in such an attack (the likely scenario), Britain or France (but not the US) might be hit with deadly fallout.
It is unlikely Putin would nuke Ukraine. (He has and will continue to have other options there.)
If I learn that Russia has started evacuating her cities, I’d rent a car, drive from where I live in the Bay Area to near the California-Oregon border and construct a temporary fallout shelter according to the instructions in Nuclear War Survival Skills.
The most likely (but not particularly likely)nuclear attack this year would involve only a few weapons, probably only one, by Putin as a way to express his disapproval of the countries supplying Ukraine with weapons, and he would with p = .98 choose to target a non-nuclear country (i.e., not the US, the UK or France) to reduce the probability of nuclear retaliation. One of the documents in the archives the Yeltsin administration opened to Western historians was a Soviet plan for the invasion of Western Europe that began with an attack with dozens of nukes on targets in West Germany, the low countries and northern Italy and maybe a few in Scandinavia (mainly on air bases and a few on military headquarters IIRC) and exactly zero targets in France or Britain.
Of course, in such an attack (the likely scenario), Britain or France (but not the US) might be hit with deadly fallout.
It is unlikely Putin would nuke Ukraine. (He has and will continue to have other options there.)