Shortly before this went up, I made a spreadsheet to do “various mathematical assessments” (brier scores in particular) on your predictions and Scott’s. This was purely to satisfy my own curiosity, and to see if my very rough impression of which predictions were faring better was accurate. I did it in a pretty quick-and-dirty way, so it seems likely that I made mistakes. But if anyone else is curious, I’m sharing it here. Feel free leave comments or copy the sheet and do whatever with it.
Shortly before this went up, I made a spreadsheet to do “various mathematical assessments” (brier scores in particular) on your predictions and Scott’s. This was purely to satisfy my own curiosity, and to see if my very rough impression of which predictions were faring better was accurate. I did it in a pretty quick-and-dirty way, so it seems likely that I made mistakes. But if anyone else is curious, I’m sharing it here. Feel free leave comments or copy the sheet and do whatever with it.