Good, this is progress. Your comment clarified your position greatly. However, I do not know what you mean by “how long is WBE likely to take?” — take until what happens?
The amount of time until we have high fidelity emulations of human brains. At that point we can start modifying/enhancing humans, seeking to create a superintelligence or at least sufficiently intelligent humans that can then create an FAI. The time from first emulation to superintelligence is nonzero, but is probably small compared to the time to first emulation. If we have reason to believe that the additional time is not small we should factor in our predictions for it as well.
My conclusion from this discussion is that our disagreement lies in the probability we assign that uploads can be applied safely to FAI as opposed to generating more existential risk. I do not see how to resolve this disagreement right now. I agree with your statement that we need to make sure that those involved in running uploads understand the problem of preserving human preference.
Good, this is progress. Your comment clarified your position greatly. However, I do not know what you mean by “how long is WBE likely to take?” — take until what happens?
The amount of time until we have high fidelity emulations of human brains. At that point we can start modifying/enhancing humans, seeking to create a superintelligence or at least sufficiently intelligent humans that can then create an FAI. The time from first emulation to superintelligence is nonzero, but is probably small compared to the time to first emulation. If we have reason to believe that the additional time is not small we should factor in our predictions for it as well.
My conclusion from this discussion is that our disagreement lies in the probability we assign that uploads can be applied safely to FAI as opposed to generating more existential risk. I do not see how to resolve this disagreement right now. I agree with your statement that we need to make sure that those involved in running uploads understand the problem of preserving human preference.
I’m not entirely sure how to resolve that either. However, it isn’t necessary for us to agree on that probability to agree on a course of action.
What probability would you assign to uploads being used safely? What do your probability distributions look like for the ETA of uploads, FAI and AGI?