Is that not just Conditional Probability? Your overall P(doom) is 6%, but your P(doom|something) is 3%, and your P(doom|something_else) is 15%. If you need something more complex you could draw a probability tree.
Is that not just Conditional Probability? Your overall P(doom) is 6%, but your P(doom|something) is 3%, and your P(doom|something_else) is 15%. If you need something more complex you could draw a probability tree.