2. The peak production year was 2005 with 73.7 million barrels produced
This is a little out of date. I have an old data file that supports your 73.7 megabarrel/day estimate for 2005, and that is the highest annual crude oil production recorded in the file — but my file only runs to 2009. When I check newer EIA data (scroll to the bottom of this table) that run through 2010, it turns out that 2010 (74.06 megabarrel/day) beats 2005 (73.80 megabarrel/day).
A similar pattern holds for the total oil supply (as opposed to crude oil supply) too: a bumpy plateau from 2005 (which had 84.60 megabarrel/day) to 2009, then a slight jump in 2010 (86.84 megabarrel/day).
3. The amount of oil produced each year is declining
I would’ve disagreed with this even before I surprised myself with the 2010 data! I would’ve said that production generally increased from the mid-1980s until it hit a plateau in 2005 and remained about constant since. I would’ve expected 2010′s production to be much the same, but it actually seems quite a bit higher when I include all sources of oil production.
I didn’t read the Wikipedia article like you asked; it seemed unnecessary for checking a few numbers
There is some brief discussion on the Wikipedia talk page asking why the article is full of projections from 2005 that haven’t been updated. I’ve removed the contradicted EIA statement from Wikipedia since it’d be strange for someone to claim that the EIA in early 2010 had a better estimate of 2010 production than it did in 2011, and put an update tag at the top for the rest.
This is a little out of date. I have an old data file that supports your 73.7 megabarrel/day estimate for 2005, and that is the highest annual crude oil production recorded in the file — but my file only runs to 2009. When I check newer EIA data (scroll to the bottom of this table) that run through 2010, it turns out that 2010 (74.06 megabarrel/day) beats 2005 (73.80 megabarrel/day).
A similar pattern holds for the total oil supply (as opposed to crude oil supply) too: a bumpy plateau from 2005 (which had 84.60 megabarrel/day) to 2009, then a slight jump in 2010 (86.84 megabarrel/day).
I would’ve disagreed with this even before I surprised myself with the 2010 data! I would’ve said that production generally increased from the mid-1980s until it hit a plateau in 2005 and remained about constant since. I would’ve expected 2010′s production to be much the same, but it actually seems quite a bit higher when I include all sources of oil production.
Supply no doubt influences price but it can’t be this simple. As far as I know, oil production was pretty well constant from 2005 through 2009 but during that time oil’s price rose massively, then crashed, then began rapidly rising again.
If you felt these three points “seem[ed] hard to argue against” I’d guess you’re overconfident on the rest of your points too.
(Disclaimer: I didn’t read the Wikipedia article like you asked; it seemed unnecessary for checking a few numbers.)
There is some brief discussion on the Wikipedia talk page asking why the article is full of projections from 2005 that haven’t been updated. I’ve removed the contradicted EIA statement from Wikipedia since it’d be strange for someone to claim that the EIA in early 2010 had a better estimate of 2010 production than it did in 2011, and put an update tag at the top for the rest.