I think we are in trouble even if the markets are very efficient (although inefficient markets would be even worse). If all forms of energy were to increase in cost the markets can’t do much to save us. So the real questions to me are still unchanged.
Oops, there’s the illusion of transparency. I meant that efficient markets take into account the expected future price of oil (if oil becomes very scarce the price will be high). Thus, current prices (which are not astronomical) strongly suggest that oil will not be super scarce in the medium term future. Any good discussion of future oil scarcity should take this seriously. Perhaps there are reasons why this doesn’t quite apply, but you would have to introduce and discuss those reasons.
Oil does not need to become super scare to cause major problems. Right now the total supply and demand are quite closely matched. Reduce the supply just 10% and big problems happen.
Again the illusion of transparency, I meant that not in the sense of a set quantity of oil but in the traditional economic sense of becoming more limited in supply relative to demand for it.
I think we are in trouble even if the markets are very efficient (although inefficient markets would be even worse). If all forms of energy were to increase in cost the markets can’t do much to save us. So the real questions to me are still unchanged.
Oops, there’s the illusion of transparency. I meant that efficient markets take into account the expected future price of oil (if oil becomes very scarce the price will be high). Thus, current prices (which are not astronomical) strongly suggest that oil will not be super scarce in the medium term future. Any good discussion of future oil scarcity should take this seriously. Perhaps there are reasons why this doesn’t quite apply, but you would have to introduce and discuss those reasons.
Oil does not need to become super scare to cause major problems. Right now the total supply and demand are quite closely matched. Reduce the supply just 10% and big problems happen.
Again the illusion of transparency, I meant that not in the sense of a set quantity of oil but in the traditional economic sense of becoming more limited in supply relative to demand for it.