Those aren’t fifteen independent predictions. Except for the last one, they are statements of purported fact. They are assertions that are alleged to be true of the present day. What is questionable is the implicit prediction that they will all continue to be the case.
ETA: I now believe that this comment was in error.
I don’t want to talk past each other, let’s see if we’re really in disagreement. I’ll try to clarify some things:
1) I think burdensomeness of details applies whether things are predictions about the future or claims about the present.
2) By “steps” I meant to include both predictions and statements of purported fact. I see many of the fifteen as predictions rather than statements. Step 15 wouldn’t follow if some of the statements about the present, particularly step 5 but to a greater or lesser extent the rest, aren’t predictions about the future despite their literal wording. Step 2 is a statement of fact dependent on future conditions, and is salient among the first 14 steps for being semantically tied to the future in the way the rest implicitly are for the argument to be valid.
On reflection, you are right that the points aren’t just statements of present fact. The OP is predicting that they will continue to be true. Contrary to what I wrote above, it’s not an “implicit prediction”, but rather the central point of the OP.
I would think food prices more dependent on meat consumption.
Come on, you can do better than that.
15 steps? A scenario requiring so many questionable steps is not likely.
Those aren’t fifteen independent predictions. Except for the last one, they are statements of purported fact. They are assertions that are alleged to be true of the present day. What is questionable is the implicit prediction that they will all continue to be the case.
ETA: I now believe that this comment was in error.
I don’t want to talk past each other, let’s see if we’re really in disagreement. I’ll try to clarify some things:
1) I think burdensomeness of details applies whether things are predictions about the future or claims about the present.
2) By “steps” I meant to include both predictions and statements of purported fact. I see many of the fifteen as predictions rather than statements. Step 15 wouldn’t follow if some of the statements about the present, particularly step 5 but to a greater or lesser extent the rest, aren’t predictions about the future despite their literal wording. Step 2 is a statement of fact dependent on future conditions, and is salient among the first 14 steps for being semantically tied to the future in the way the rest implicitly are for the argument to be valid.
On reflection, you are right that the points aren’t just statements of present fact. The OP is predicting that they will continue to be true. Contrary to what I wrote above, it’s not an “implicit prediction”, but rather the central point of the OP.