Wikipedia is wrong (marginal traders are the ones that exert the most influence, and I don’t even know what they’re thinking bring normality into it). Those are sufficient but not necessary conditions.
In any case, financial markets are almost certainly not literally efficient, but are definitely close to efficient (you are only allowed to doubt this if you are a multi-billionaire or have an exceptionally clever theory). Thus, expectations about future demand and supply should be key determinants of current oil prices.
Wikipedia is wrong (marginal traders are the ones that exert the most influence, and I don’t even know what they’re thinking bring normality into it). Those are sufficient but not necessary conditions.
In any case, financial markets are almost certainly not literally efficient, but are definitely close to efficient (you are only allowed to doubt this if you are a multi-billionaire or have an exceptionally clever theory). Thus, expectations about future demand and supply should be key determinants of current oil prices.
Here’s EY on the topic.
I see! Thanks.