I understand the point about more details lowering the probability, but I just can’t see how we can get halfway down the list and have it turn into “and we all lived happily ever after”. The greatest sources of uncertainty in the probabilities seem to be can we invent some new technology, can we reduce energy needs for a few years without collapsing too much, etc. Everything else has a probability of very close to 1 if the earlier steps are agreed.
I understand the point about more details lowering the probability, but I just can’t see how we can get halfway down the list and have it turn into “and we all lived happily ever after”. The greatest sources of uncertainty in the probabilities seem to be can we invent some new technology, can we reduce energy needs for a few years without collapsing too much, etc. Everything else has a probability of very close to 1 if the earlier steps are agreed.