I didn’t look at the tags before reading. I did notice it was fiction pretty quickly but “is this dath ilan” was still a live question for me until the reveal. (Though Eliezer might want to continue writing some non-dath ilan fiction occasionally, if he wants that to continue to be a likely thought process.)
I didn’t notice the author, nor the tags. My thought when the article asked for a prediction was that they grew up in a Jainist community of some kind, although I realized that Jainists may not have their own television shows, and the probability of someone from LessWrong having grown up in a Jainist community is probably less likely than that they grew up in a cult of some kind. But cults are even less likely to have their own television shows, I surmised, at which point I decided the point about television shows was probably rhetorical. That’s when I decided the entire thing might be rhetorical, so it wasn’t actually worth making a prediction.
I got to the part about writing down a prediction, which prompted me to pay closer attention, and it was only at that point I noticed the “fiction” tag.
Honestly “fiction” was enough of a spoiler. “As a child, we were always told that every sapient life is precious.” made it a certainty.
I didn’t look at the tags before reading. I did notice it was fiction pretty quickly but “is this dath ilan” was still a live question for me until the reveal. (Though Eliezer might want to continue writing some non-dath ilan fiction occasionally, if he wants that to continue to be a likely thought process.)
I didn’t notice the author, nor the tags. My thought when the article asked for a prediction was that they grew up in a Jainist community of some kind, although I realized that Jainists may not have their own television shows, and the probability of someone from LessWrong having grown up in a Jainist community is probably less likely than that they grew up in a cult of some kind. But cults are even less likely to have their own television shows, I surmised, at which point I decided the point about television shows was probably rhetorical. That’s when I decided the entire thing might be rhetorical, so it wasn’t actually worth making a prediction.
I got to the part about writing down a prediction, which prompted me to pay closer attention, and it was only at that point I noticed the “fiction” tag.