if Kevin is wrong about everything all the time, that does raise my subjective probability that Kevin is stupid and bad.
This is largely tangential to your point (with which I agree), but I think it’s worth pointing out that if Kevin really manages to be wrong about everything, you’d be able to get the right answer just by taking his conclusions and inverting them—meaning whatever cognitive processes he’s using to get the wrong answer 100% of the time must actually be quite intelligent.
if Kevin really manages to be wrong about everything, you’d be able to get the right answer just by taking his conclusions and inverting them
That only works for true-or-false questions. In larger answer spaces, he’d need to be wrong in some specific way such that there exists some simple algorithm (the analogue of “inverting”) to compute the right answers from those wrong ones.
This is largely tangential to your point (with which I agree), but I think it’s worth pointing out that if Kevin really manages to be wrong about everything, you’d be able to get the right answer just by taking his conclusions and inverting them—meaning whatever cognitive processes he’s using to get the wrong answer 100% of the time must actually be quite intelligent.
That only works for true-or-false questions. In larger answer spaces, he’d need to be wrong in some specific way such that there exists some simple algorithm (the analogue of “inverting”) to compute the right answers from those wrong ones.