I agree with all of this. (And have had similar experiences.)
The opportunity feeling on the way in, and then something much closer to randomness on the way out in particular resonates, and I’m not sure I’d seen that actually written out as a general rule before.
EDIT: See also my comment here for some discussion of how I think this works. And see my reply to Eliezer here for some heuristics regarding when an opportunity might be real.
I agree with all of this. (And have had similar experiences.)
The opportunity feeling on the way in, and then something much closer to randomness on the way out in particular resonates, and I’m not sure I’d seen that actually written out as a general rule before.
EDIT: See also my comment here for some discussion of how I think this works. And see my reply to Eliezer here for some heuristics regarding when an opportunity might be real.