How strongly does it indicate that the person who did it is likely to do other bad things in future?
But this recurses until all the leaf nodes are “how much harm does it do?” so it’s exactly equivalent to how much harm we expect this person to inflict over the course of their lives.
Killing someone in person is psychologically harder for normal decent people than letting them die, especially if the victim is a stranger far away, and even more so if there isn’t some specific person who’s dying. So actually killing someone is “worse”, if by that you mean that it gives a stronger indication of being callous or malicious or something, even if there’s no difference in harm done.
By the same token, it’s easier to kill people far away and indirectly than up close and personal, so someone using indirect means and killing lots of people will continue to have an easy time killing more people indirectly. So this doesn’t change the analysis that the embargo was ten thousand times worse than the school shooting.
But this recurses [...] so it’s exactly equivalent to how much harm we expect [...]
For an idealized consequentialist, yes. However, most of us find that our moral intuitions are not those of an idealized consequentialist. (They might be some sort of evolution-computed approximation to something slightly resembling idealized consequentialism.)
So this doesn’t change the analysis that the embargo was ten thousand times worse [...]
That depends on the opportunities the person in question has to engage in similar indirectly harmful behaviour. GHWB is no longer in a position to cause millions of deaths by putting embargoes in place, after all.
For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not saying any of this in order to deny (1) that the embargo was a more harmful action than the Columbine massacre, or (2) that the sort of consequentialism frequently advocated (or assumed) on LW leads to the conclusion that the embargo was a more harmful action than the Columbine massacre. (It isn’t perfectly clear to me whether you think 1, or think 2-but-not-1 and are using this partly as an argument against full-on consequentialism.)
But if the question is who is more evil*, GHWB or the Columbine killers?”, the answer depends on what you mean by “evil” and most people most of the time don’t mean “causing harm”; they mean something they probably couldn’t express in words but that probably ends up being close to “having personality traits that in our environment of evolutionary adaptedness correlate with being dangerous to be closely involved with”—which would include, e.g., a tendency to respond to (real or imagined) slights with extreme violence, but probably wouldn’t include a tendency to callousness when dealing with the lives of strangers thousands of miles away.
But this recurses until all the leaf nodes are “how much harm does it do?” so it’s exactly equivalent to how much harm we expect this person to inflict over the course of their lives.
By the same token, it’s easier to kill people far away and indirectly than up close and personal, so someone using indirect means and killing lots of people will continue to have an easy time killing more people indirectly. So this doesn’t change the analysis that the embargo was ten thousand times worse than the school shooting.
For an idealized consequentialist, yes. However, most of us find that our moral intuitions are not those of an idealized consequentialist. (They might be some sort of evolution-computed approximation to something slightly resembling idealized consequentialism.)
That depends on the opportunities the person in question has to engage in similar indirectly harmful behaviour. GHWB is no longer in a position to cause millions of deaths by putting embargoes in place, after all.
For the avoidance of doubt, I’m not saying any of this in order to deny (1) that the embargo was a more harmful action than the Columbine massacre, or (2) that the sort of consequentialism frequently advocated (or assumed) on LW leads to the conclusion that the embargo was a more harmful action than the Columbine massacre. (It isn’t perfectly clear to me whether you think 1, or think 2-but-not-1 and are using this partly as an argument against full-on consequentialism.)
But if the question is who is more evil*, GHWB or the Columbine killers?”, the answer depends on what you mean by “evil” and most people most of the time don’t mean “causing harm”; they mean something they probably couldn’t express in words but that probably ends up being close to “having personality traits that in our environment of evolutionary adaptedness correlate with being dangerous to be closely involved with”—which would include, e.g., a tendency to respond to (real or imagined) slights with extreme violence, but probably wouldn’t include a tendency to callousness when dealing with the lives of strangers thousands of miles away.