You are saying “improvements in output not accomplished by spending more real dollars in equipment or having more people working”.
Hypothetically if we had sentient robots tommorow they would initially be priced extremely high, where the TCO over time of such a system is only slightly less than a worker. Are you positive your metric would correctly account for such a change? This would be a revolutionary improvement that would eventually change everything but in year 1 the new sentient robots are just doing existing jobs with less labor and very high capital costs
No it wouldn’t. TFP is in a sense, a lagging indicator. It captures economic benefits of technological progress but does not evaluate emerging technologies which have yet to make an economic imprint. That said, no AI I’m aware of that presently exists is remotely comparable to a human level AI. Level 5 self driving doesn’t even exist yet and once the computational power used to power AI catches up with Moore’s Law, the field seems due for a slowdown.
You are saying “improvements in output not accomplished by spending more real dollars in equipment or having more people working”.
Hypothetically if we had sentient robots tommorow they would initially be priced extremely high, where the TCO over time of such a system is only slightly less than a worker. Are you positive your metric would correctly account for such a change? This would be a revolutionary improvement that would eventually change everything but in year 1 the new sentient robots are just doing existing jobs with less labor and very high capital costs
No it wouldn’t. TFP is in a sense, a lagging indicator. It captures economic benefits of technological progress but does not evaluate emerging technologies which have yet to make an economic imprint. That said, no AI I’m aware of that presently exists is remotely comparable to a human level AI. Level 5 self driving doesn’t even exist yet and once the computational power used to power AI catches up with Moore’s Law, the field seems due for a slowdown.