Yes—I suspect a large amount of the variance is explained by features we can measure, and the residual may be currently unexplained, but filtering on the features you can measure probably gets most of what is needed.
However, I don’t think the conclusion necessarily follows.
The problem is a causal reasoning / incentive issue (because of reasons) - just because people who update frequently do well doesn’t mean that telling people you’ll pay those who update frequently will cause them to do better now that they update more often. For instance, if you took MMORPG players and gave them money on condition that they spend money on the game, you’ll screw up the relationship between spending and success.
Fair point. I’m sure you expect some correlation between the use of reasonable incentive structures and useful updating though. It may not be perfect, but I’d be surprised if it were 0.
Yes—I suspect a large amount of the variance is explained by features we can measure, and the residual may be currently unexplained, but filtering on the features you can measure probably gets most of what is needed.
However, I don’t think the conclusion necessarily follows.
The problem is a causal reasoning / incentive issue (because of reasons) - just because people who update frequently do well doesn’t mean that telling people you’ll pay those who update frequently will cause them to do better now that they update more often. For instance, if you took MMORPG players and gave them money on condition that they spend money on the game, you’ll screw up the relationship between spending and success.
Fair point. I’m sure you expect some correlation between the use of reasonable incentive structures and useful updating though. It may not be perfect, but I’d be surprised if it were 0.
Agreed.