Just observing that the answer to this question should be more or less obvious from a histogram (assuming large enough N and a sufficient number of buckets), “Is there a substantial discontinuity at the 2% quantile?”
Power law behaviour is not necessary and arguably not sufficient for “superforecasters are a natural category” to win (e.g. it should win in a population in which 2% have a brier score of zero and the rest 1, which is not a power law).
Just observing that the answer to this question should be more or less obvious from a histogram (assuming large enough N and a sufficient number of buckets), “Is there a substantial discontinuity at the 2% quantile?”
Power law behaviour is not necessary and arguably not sufficient for “superforecasters are a natural category” to win (e.g. it should win in a population in which 2% have a brier score of zero and the rest 1, which is not a power law).
Agree re: power law.
The data is here https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/gjp?q=&types=files&sort=dateSort&order=desc&page=1 , so I could just find out. I posted here trying to save time, hoping someone else would already have done the analysis.