Briefly: I told my learner “assume there are two sources of income for Light Forest forts; assume they are log-linked functions of the data provided with no interactions between features; characterize these income sources.”
The output graphs, properly interpreted, said back:
The larger source of income benefits greatly from Miners, benefits from the presence of every ore (especially Haematite), likes coal, and benefits from having one Smith.
The smaller source of income benefits from Woodcutters, benefits from having two (but not more) Warriors, hard-requires at least one Woodcutter and Warrior in order to be viable, actively dislikes Coal, doesn’t care about ores (except Copper for some reason), and strongly benefits from Crafters.
(In reviewing my graphs in retrospect I also see a small bump in performance for both sources associated with having exactly one Brewer; I missed that the first time because it looked like noise and I’d assumed Brewers only mattered to the survival half of the challenge.)
This wasn’t 100% right, and missed some important detail, but given the bad assumptions I built it on—an additive model with a lot of interactions sprinkled on top would have been a better match—I’m pleasantly surprised by how closely it matches (a valid interpretation of) ground truth.
The larger source of income benefits greatly from Miners, benefits from the presence of every ore (especially Haematite), likes coal, and benefits from having one Smith.
The smaller source of income benefits from Woodcutters, benefits from having two (but not more) Warriors, hard-requires at least one Woodcutter and Warrior in order to be viable, actively dislikes Coal, doesn’t care about ores (except Copper for some reason), and strongly benefits from Crafters.
Ah, I see! That is a meaningful interpretation of reality, but rather than ‘ore-based vs wood-based’ I’d phrase it as a distinction between:
Staying inside and mining. Benefits from all ores, and miners. Makes only a few finished goods (smelting only with coal) but still benefits from higher coal level and one or two dwarves to smelt.
Also getting outside and getting fuel. Needs warriors to get you outside, benefits a lot from woodcutters as well, smelts whatever ores are available and crafts wood if it’s left over.
Briefly: I told my learner “assume there are two sources of income for Light Forest forts; assume they are log-linked functions of the data provided with no interactions between features; characterize these income sources.”
The output graphs, properly interpreted, said back:
The larger source of income benefits greatly from Miners, benefits from the presence of every ore (especially Haematite), likes coal, and benefits from having one Smith.
The smaller source of income benefits from Woodcutters, benefits from having two (but not more) Warriors, hard-requires at least one Woodcutter and Warrior in order to be viable, actively dislikes Coal, doesn’t care about ores (except Copper for some reason), and strongly benefits from Crafters.
(In reviewing my graphs in retrospect I also see a small bump in performance for both sources associated with having exactly one Brewer; I missed that the first time because it looked like noise and I’d assumed Brewers only mattered to the survival half of the challenge.)
This wasn’t 100% right, and missed some important detail, but given the bad assumptions I built it on—an additive model with a lot of interactions sprinkled on top would have been a better match—I’m pleasantly surprised by how closely it matches (a valid interpretation of) ground truth.
Ah, I see! That is a meaningful interpretation of reality, but rather than ‘ore-based vs wood-based’ I’d phrase it as a distinction between:
Staying inside and mining. Benefits from all ores, and miners. Makes only a few finished goods (smelting only with coal) but still benefits from higher coal level and one or two dwarves to smelt.
Also getting outside and getting fuel. Needs warriors to get you outside, benefits a lot from woodcutters as well, smelts whatever ores are available and crafts wood if it’s left over.