For scoring systems, rather than betting markets, none of these particular attacks work. This is trivially true for the first and third attack, since you don’t be against individuals. And for any proper scoring rule, calibration-fluffing is worse than predicting your true odds for the dumb predictions. (Aligning incentives is still very tricky, but the set of attacks are very different.)
For scoring systems, rather than betting markets, none of these particular attacks work. This is trivially true for the first and third attack, since you don’t be against individuals. And for any proper scoring rule, calibration-fluffing is worse than predicting your true odds for the dumb predictions. (Aligning incentives is still very tricky, but the set of attacks are very different.)