I don’t know what performance measure is used to select superforecasters, but updating frequently seems to usually improve your accuracy score on GJopen as well (see “Activity Loading” in this thread on the EA forum. )
Yes, it’s super important to update frequently when the scores are computed as time-weighted. And for Mataculus, that’s a useful thing, since viewers want to know what the current best guess is, but it’s not the only way to do scoring. But saying frequent updating makes you better at forecasting isn’t actually a fact about how accurate the individual forecasts are—it’s a fact about how they are scored.
I don’t know what performance measure is used to select superforecasters, but updating frequently seems to usually improve your accuracy score on GJopen as well (see “Activity Loading” in
this thread on the EA forum. )
Yes, it’s super important to update frequently when the scores are computed as time-weighted. And for Mataculus, that’s a useful thing, since viewers want to know what the current best guess is, but it’s not the only way to do scoring. But saying frequent updating makes you better at forecasting isn’t actually a fact about how accurate the individual forecasts are—it’s a fact about how they are scored.