This is essentially a problem of prediction and forecasting, and you might both benefit from looking into the literature on super forecasting. Phillip Tetlock is the go-to, and I’d also look into Nicholas Nassim Taleb.
Basically, your son is right that when you take drugs, you’re placing a bet on the outcome, and the only way to find out for sure what your outcome will be is to take the drug.
However, he seems to be neglecting the critical point that any smart forecaster works very hard to establish the base rate before they make their prediction. That is what you read the research studies for. Of course if he’s just looking for ammunition to justify taking drugs, there really isn’t much of a point in doing more research. But if he’s at least giving lip service to the idea of making smart, well-thought-out choices without getting stuck in analysis paralysis, there are ways to go about the reasoning under uncertainty aspect of the problem. I’d recommend starting with Superforecasting and maybe The Black Swan, and then circle back.
This is essentially a problem of prediction and forecasting, and you might both benefit from looking into the literature on super forecasting. Phillip Tetlock is the go-to, and I’d also look into Nicholas Nassim Taleb.
Basically, your son is right that when you take drugs, you’re placing a bet on the outcome, and the only way to find out for sure what your outcome will be is to take the drug.
However, he seems to be neglecting the critical point that any smart forecaster works very hard to establish the base rate before they make their prediction. That is what you read the research studies for. Of course if he’s just looking for ammunition to justify taking drugs, there really isn’t much of a point in doing more research. But if he’s at least giving lip service to the idea of making smart, well-thought-out choices without getting stuck in analysis paralysis, there are ways to go about the reasoning under uncertainty aspect of the problem. I’d recommend starting with Superforecasting and maybe The Black Swan, and then circle back.