Hmm, this isn’t really what I’m trying to get across when I use the phrase “least convenient possible world”. I’m not talking about being isekaid into an actually different world; I’m just talking about operating under uncertainty, and isolating cruxes. Alice is suggesting that Bob—this universe’s Bob—really might be harmed more by rest-more advice than by work-harder advice, really might find it easier to change himself than he predicts, etc. He doesn’t know for certain what’s true (ie “which universe he’s in”) until he tries.
Let’s use an easier example:
Jane doesn’t really want to go to Joe’s karaoke party on Sunday. Joe asks why. Jane says she doesn’t want to go because she’s got a lot of household chores to get done, and she doesn’t like karaoke anyway. Joe really wants her to go, so he could ask: “If I get all your chores done for you, and I change the plan from karaoke to bowling, then will you come?”
You could phrase that as, “In the most convenient possible world, would you come then?” but Joe isn’t positing that there’s an alternate-universe bowling party that alternate-universe Jane might attend (but this universe’s Jane doesn’t want to attend because in this universe it’s a karaoke party). He’s just checking to see whether Jane’s given her REAL objections. She might say, “Okay, yeah, so long as it’s not karaoke then I’ll happily attend.” Or she might say, “No, I still don’t really want to go.” In the latter case, Joe has discovered that the REAL reason Jane doesn’t want to go is something else—maybe she just doesn’t like him and she said the thing about chores just to be polite, or maybe she doesn’t want to admit that she’s staying home to watch the latest episode of her favourite guilty-pleasure sitcom, or something.
If “but what about the PR?” is Bob’s real genuine crux, he’ll say, “Yeah, if the PR issues were reversed then I’d commit harder for sure!” If, on the other hand, it’s just an excuse, then nothing Alice says will convince Bob to work harder—even if she did take the time to knock down all his arguments (which in this dialogue she does not).
I confess that was not my reading of the text. I’ve been reading quite a few thought experiments recently, so I’m primed to interpret “possible worlds” that way. In my defense, the text links to Yudkowsky’s Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child, which uses the “Least Convenient Possible World” to indicate a counterfactual / thought experiment / hypothetical worlds. Regardless, I missed Alice’s point.
Since Alice was trying to ask about cruxes and uncertainty, here’s an altered dialog that I think is clearer:
Alice: Okay, so your objections are (1) hard work might harm you (2) you can’t change (3) social norms and (4) public relations. Is that it, or do you have other reasons?
Bob: Yes. I just kind of don’t really want to work harder.
Alice: I think we’ve arrived at the core of the problem.
Bob: We’re going full-contact psychoanalysis, then. Are you sure you want to go there? Maybe you are a workaholic because you have an unresolved need to impress your parents, or because it gives you moral license to be rude and arrogant, or because you never fully grew out of your childhood faith.
Alice: Unlike you, Bob, I see a therapist.
Bob: You mentioned. So we have two hypotheses. Maybe I don’t want to work harder and therefore have rationalized reasons not to. Maybe I have reasons not to work harder and therefore I don’t want to. I suppose I could see a therapist and get evidence to distinguish these cases. Then what? If I learn that, really, I just don’t want to work harder then you haven’t persuaded me to do anything differently, you’ve kind of just made me feel bad.
Alice: Maybe I’d like you to stop claiming to be a utilitarian, when you’re totally not—you’re just an egoist who happens to have certain tuistic preferences. I might respect you more if you had the integrity to be honest about it. Maybe I think you’re wrong, and there’s some way to persuade you to be better, and I just haven’t found it yet. [...]
This seems like you understood my intent; I’m glad we communicated! Though I think Bob seeing a therapist is totally an action that Alice would support, if he thinks that’s the best test of her ideas—and importantly if he thinks the test genuinely could go either way.
Hmm, this isn’t really what I’m trying to get across when I use the phrase “least convenient possible world”. I’m not talking about being isekaid into an actually different world; I’m just talking about operating under uncertainty, and isolating cruxes. Alice is suggesting that Bob—this universe’s Bob—really might be harmed more by rest-more advice than by work-harder advice, really might find it easier to change himself than he predicts, etc. He doesn’t know for certain what’s true (ie “which universe he’s in”) until he tries.
Let’s use an easier example:
Jane doesn’t really want to go to Joe’s karaoke party on Sunday. Joe asks why. Jane says she doesn’t want to go because she’s got a lot of household chores to get done, and she doesn’t like karaoke anyway. Joe really wants her to go, so he could ask: “If I get all your chores done for you, and I change the plan from karaoke to bowling, then will you come?”
You could phrase that as, “In the most convenient possible world, would you come then?” but Joe isn’t positing that there’s an alternate-universe bowling party that alternate-universe Jane might attend (but this universe’s Jane doesn’t want to attend because in this universe it’s a karaoke party). He’s just checking to see whether Jane’s given her REAL objections. She might say, “Okay, yeah, so long as it’s not karaoke then I’ll happily attend.” Or she might say, “No, I still don’t really want to go.” In the latter case, Joe has discovered that the REAL reason Jane doesn’t want to go is something else—maybe she just doesn’t like him and she said the thing about chores just to be polite, or maybe she doesn’t want to admit that she’s staying home to watch the latest episode of her favourite guilty-pleasure sitcom, or something.
If “but what about the PR?” is Bob’s real genuine crux, he’ll say, “Yeah, if the PR issues were reversed then I’d commit harder for sure!” If, on the other hand, it’s just an excuse, then nothing Alice says will convince Bob to work harder—even if she did take the time to knock down all his arguments (which in this dialogue she does not).
I confess that was not my reading of the text. I’ve been reading quite a few thought experiments recently, so I’m primed to interpret “possible worlds” that way. In my defense, the text links to Yudkowsky’s Self-Integrity and the Drowning Child, which uses the “Least Convenient Possible World” to indicate a counterfactual / thought experiment / hypothetical worlds. Regardless, I missed Alice’s point.
Since Alice was trying to ask about cruxes and uncertainty, here’s an altered dialog that I think is clearer:
Alice: Okay, so your objections are (1) hard work might harm you (2) you can’t change (3) social norms and (4) public relations. Is that it, or do you have other reasons?
Bob: Yes. I just kind of don’t really want to work harder.
Alice: I think we’ve arrived at the core of the problem.
Bob: We’re going full-contact psychoanalysis, then. Are you sure you want to go there? Maybe you are a workaholic because you have an unresolved need to impress your parents, or because it gives you moral license to be rude and arrogant, or because you never fully grew out of your childhood faith.
Alice: Unlike you, Bob, I see a therapist.
Bob: You mentioned. So we have two hypotheses. Maybe I don’t want to work harder and therefore have rationalized reasons not to. Maybe I have reasons not to work harder and therefore I don’t want to. I suppose I could see a therapist and get evidence to distinguish these cases. Then what? If I learn that, really, I just don’t want to work harder then you haven’t persuaded me to do anything differently, you’ve kind of just made me feel bad.
Alice: Maybe I’d like you to stop claiming to be a utilitarian, when you’re totally not—you’re just an egoist who happens to have certain tuistic preferences. I might respect you more if you had the integrity to be honest about it. Maybe I think you’re wrong, and there’s some way to persuade you to be better, and I just haven’t found it yet. [...]
This seems like you understood my intent; I’m glad we communicated! Though I think Bob seeing a therapist is totally an action that Alice would support, if he thinks that’s the best test of her ideas—and importantly if he thinks the test genuinely could go either way.