I will probably accept bets, although the fact that someone would be willing to bet me on some of mine is evidence that I’m overconfident, so I might re-evaluate my probability if someone offers.
FWIW you can bet on some of these on PredictIt—for example, Predictit assigns only a 47% chance Trump will win in 2020. That’s not a huge difference, but still worth betting 5% of your bankroll (after fees) on if you bet half-Kelly. (if you want to bet with me for whatever reason, I’d also be willing to bet up to $700 that Trump doesn’t win at PredictIt odds if I don’t have to tie up capital)
Is anyone accepting bets on their predictions?
I will probably accept bets, although the fact that someone would be willing to bet me on some of mine is evidence that I’m overconfident, so I might re-evaluate my probability if someone offers.
FWIW you can bet on some of these on PredictIt—for example, Predictit assigns only a 47% chance Trump will win in 2020. That’s not a huge difference, but still worth betting 5% of your bankroll (after fees) on if you bet half-Kelly. (if you want to bet with me for whatever reason, I’d also be willing to bet up to $700 that Trump doesn’t win at PredictIt odds if I don’t have to tie up capital)