The Rubik’s Cube one strikes me as much more feasible than the other AI predictions. Look at the dexterity improvements of Boston Dynamics over the last decade and apply that to the current robotic hands, and I think there’s a better than 70% chance you get a Rubik’s Cube-spinning, chopsticks-using robotic hand by 2030.
This video didn’t shift my priors that much. The impressive thing in the video is speed and precision, which is trivial for machines, let alone AI. Speed and precision is already there, it just needs to be hooked on to some qualitative breakthrough in application.
My main data point is that I’m not very impressed by OpenAI’s robot hand. It is very impressive relative to what we had 10 years ago, but top humans are extremely adept at manipulating things in their hands.
The Rubik’s Cube one strikes me as much more feasible than the other AI predictions. Look at the dexterity improvements of Boston Dynamics over the last decade and apply that to the current robotic hands, and I think there’s a better than 70% chance you get a Rubik’s Cube-spinning, chopsticks-using robotic hand by 2030.
To help calibrate, watch this video.
This video didn’t shift my priors that much. The impressive thing in the video is speed and precision, which is trivial for machines, let alone AI. Speed and precision is already there, it just needs to be hooked on to some qualitative breakthrough in application.
I’m willing to bet on this prediction.
How are you defining “hand”?
Obviously this beats humans for speed but I guess you’re thinking of something which is general purpose and Rubik’s cube is just a test of dexterity?
By hand I mean anything that closely resembles a human hand.
My main data point is that I’m not very impressed by OpenAI’s robot hand. It is very impressive relative to what we had 10 years ago, but top humans are extremely adept at manipulating things in their hands.