The market for Certificates of Impact will be smaller than $100K/year in 2030. ~90%.
There will be at least 1000 points on Hacker News with “Knowledge Graph” or synonyms in the title. ~60%
No [AGI+Superintelligence] ~98%
The Economist will be more optimistic in 2030 than it is in Jan 1, 2020.[1] ~80%
Judgemental prediction applications will be considered “moderately useful” for EA purposes ~40%
There will be at least one US-based prediction market larger than PredictIt is now, in daily traffic. ~50%
I realize these are all super high-level and vague. [1] Due mostly from reversion to the mean. Things seem particularly bad right now.
The market for Certificates of Impact will be smaller than $100K/year in 2020
Do you mean 2030?
Yes, thanks for noticing!
Would you count Paul’s “altruistic equity allocation” as part of an impact certificate market?
Sure. I didn’t know about this post when I wrote this, but it seems similar enough.
The market for Certificates of Impact will be smaller than $100K/year in 2030. ~90%.
There will be at least 1000 points on Hacker News with “Knowledge Graph” or synonyms in the title. ~60%
No [AGI+Superintelligence] ~98%
The Economist will be more optimistic in 2030 than it is in Jan 1, 2020.[1] ~80%
Judgemental prediction applications will be considered “moderately useful” for EA purposes ~40%
There will be at least one US-based prediction market larger than PredictIt is now, in daily traffic. ~50%
I realize these are all super high-level and vague. [1] Due mostly from reversion to the mean. Things seem particularly bad right now.
Do you mean 2030?
Yes, thanks for noticing!
Would you count Paul’s “altruistic equity allocation” as part of an impact certificate market?
Sure. I didn’t know about this post when I wrote this, but it seems similar enough.