No one will have won a Nobel Prize in Physics for their work on string theory. 80%
and
No US President will utter the words “Existential risk” in public during their term as president. 65%
But this is such that I’d expect that looking into either for a couple of hours would change my mind. For the second one, the Google ngram page for existential risk is interesting, but it sadly only reaches up to the year 2008.
This seems underconfident?
I have different intuitions for both:
and
But this is such that I’d expect that looking into either for a couple of hours would change my mind. For the second one, the Google ngram page for existential risk is interesting, but it sadly only reaches up to the year 2008.