Biden repeated in the debate the general expectation that another wave of infections and deaths is coming Real Soon Now, and that deaths may double over the next few months, as the rate goes up by a factor of five or more. That’s the new Very Serious Person position.
Other countries have had second waves, so why should the US be exempt? Eyeballing figures isn’t a good way to predict second waves, because underlying conditions can change. You can’t assume that the same trends will continue after a step change like the opening schools or restarting international travel .
Have any countries with estimated cumulative infection rates similar to the U.S. experienced second waves where fatality totals approached earlier peaks?
Going by information at the Worldometer site, for example, Spain, France, and the UK have experienced cumulative reported per capita COVID deaths ranging from about 25% lower than the U.S. level (in France) to about 6% higher. I take that as evidence that the cumulative level of COVID infections in each of those countries is broadly similar to the U.S. In each of those 3 countries, the 7-day average of reported daily COVID deaths during a recent second wave has—at least so far—stayed below 20% of peak levels in the spring.
Other countries have had second waves, so why should the US be exempt? Eyeballing figures isn’t a good way to predict second waves, because underlying conditions can change. You can’t assume that the same trends will continue after a step change like the opening schools or restarting international travel .
Have any countries with estimated cumulative infection rates similar to the U.S. experienced second waves where fatality totals approached earlier peaks?
Going by information at the Worldometer site, for example, Spain, France, and the UK have experienced cumulative reported per capita COVID deaths ranging from about 25% lower than the U.S. level (in France) to about 6% higher. I take that as evidence that the cumulative level of COVID infections in each of those countries is broadly similar to the U.S. In each of those 3 countries, the 7-day average of reported daily COVID deaths during a recent second wave has—at least so far—stayed below 20% of peak levels in the spring.
So you are arguing about the size of a second wave in the US, not the likelihood?