After screwing up predictions about Iraqi WMDs the CIA believed that they have a problem. That lead to IARPA making a tournament for different approaches to making predictions. Tedlock’s Good Judgement project won that tournament.
I think you can make an argument that Metaculus community predictions aren’t really reflecting superforcasting predictions as there are plenty of people who are making predictions without that skillset but a well-functioning prediction market wouldn’t have that problem.
After screwing up predictions about Iraqi WMDs the CIA believed that they have a problem. That lead to IARPA making a tournament for different approaches to making predictions. Tedlock’s Good Judgement project won that tournament.
I think you can make an argument that Metaculus community predictions aren’t really reflecting superforcasting predictions as there are plenty of people who are making predictions without that skillset but a well-functioning prediction market wouldn’t have that problem.