Judging by the Metaculus’ track record, it is surprisingly good in most cases.
In particular, it gave a >50% probability of the invasion more than 1 month before it has started. And 4 days before the invasion, it gave 75% (source).
Of course, the invasion plans were classified and carefully guarded, even from some members of the Russian gov. But publicly accessible data were sufficient to give a good forecast anyway.
I’m closely monitoring the war, and from my understanding of the situation, Metaculus is right: both a ceasefire and a capture of Kyiv are unlikely to happen in the next few months. Thus, the war is unlikely to stop anytime soon.
Judging by the Metaculus’ track record, it is surprisingly good in most cases.
In particular, it gave a >50% probability of the invasion more than 1 month before it has started. And 4 days before the invasion, it gave 75% (source).
Of course, the invasion plans were classified and carefully guarded, even from some members of the Russian gov. But publicly accessible data were sufficient to give a good forecast anyway.
I’m closely monitoring the war, and from my understanding of the situation, Metaculus is right: both a ceasefire and a capture of Kyiv are unlikely to happen in the next few months. Thus, the war is unlikely to stop anytime soon.