This seems related to Zvi’s binary of “okay mode” vs. “not okay mode” that he wrote about here.
Your model matches up to my read of how the laypeople I talk to speak about COVID risks. I’m not sure it’s the right explanation of the initially strange-looking set of interventions that people perform. For example, some public places have Plexiglass separators to simulate social distancing, and others don’t. I think that few would claim that the Plexiglass is necessary to attain safety, but it is still popular. I also don’t think this explanation accounts for the dramatic variation in interventions applied in different countries.
Plexiglass separators were a reasonable precaution in the days back when the mainstream view was that the disease was spread mostly by large droplets that mostly fell within seconds. They seem less useful in these days when nearly everyone gives higher credence to primarily aerosol spread.
That said, we still don’t have great data on how easily COVID spreads in practice through various transmission routes. Maybe they do significantly reduce probability of transmission after all.
There’s fairly decent, real-world evidence that covid spreads almost exclusively by aerosols. There doesn’t seem to be much outdoor transmission, and that rules out direct droplet transmission. There’s nearly zero evidence for fomite transmission. Also, indoor transmission seems to be required for transmission. All of that (and more) points to aerosols.
For the semi-random set of interventions I don’t have a perfect explanation. My best guess is that at the start of the pandemic there was a chaotic period where random measures were tried (like plexiglass dividors) at some point, when things crystallized, removing a safety measure already in place was seen as unsafe.
With regards to the international variation, at least within the Western hemisphere, what examples are you thinking of?
This seems related to Zvi’s binary of “okay mode” vs. “not okay mode” that he wrote about here.
Your model matches up to my read of how the laypeople I talk to speak about COVID risks. I’m not sure it’s the right explanation of the initially strange-looking set of interventions that people perform. For example, some public places have Plexiglass separators to simulate social distancing, and others don’t. I think that few would claim that the Plexiglass is necessary to attain safety, but it is still popular. I also don’t think this explanation accounts for the dramatic variation in interventions applied in different countries.
Plexiglass separators were a reasonable precaution in the days back when the mainstream view was that the disease was spread mostly by large droplets that mostly fell within seconds. They seem less useful in these days when nearly everyone gives higher credence to primarily aerosol spread.
That said, we still don’t have great data on how easily COVID spreads in practice through various transmission routes. Maybe they do significantly reduce probability of transmission after all.
There’s fairly decent, real-world evidence that covid spreads almost exclusively by aerosols. There doesn’t seem to be much outdoor transmission, and that rules out direct droplet transmission. There’s nearly zero evidence for fomite transmission. Also, indoor transmission seems to be required for transmission. All of that (and more) points to aerosols.
For the semi-random set of interventions I don’t have a perfect explanation. My best guess is that at the start of the pandemic there was a chaotic period where random measures were tried (like plexiglass dividors) at some point, when things crystallized, removing a safety measure already in place was seen as unsafe.
With regards to the international variation, at least within the Western hemisphere, what examples are you thinking of?