If they used irrational methods (which they probably did), we should study those methods, pull out the rational core and use it to go start some businesses.
A proposal worth trying. My point is that we should ideally be able to do the correct expected value + risk tolerance calculation in deciding whether to try a given venture, and that many of those who succeeded skipped that step or made an optimistic error. More generally, studying what properties are most frequent amongst the winners doesn’t tell you enough about the value of acquiring those properties. (I’m assuming you care what happens to you if you fail.)
I’m hopeful that if overconfidence is necessary in a method-acting or emotional-battery sense, someone who understands that they’re being overconfident can nonetheless knowingly push their affect in that direction (an open question).
A proposal worth trying. My point is that we should ideally be able to do the correct expected value + risk tolerance calculation in deciding whether to try a given venture, and that many of those who succeeded skipped that step or made an optimistic error. More generally, studying what properties are most frequent amongst the winners doesn’t tell you enough about the value of acquiring those properties. (I’m assuming you care what happens to you if you fail.)
I’m hopeful that if overconfidence is necessary in a method-acting or emotional-battery sense, someone who understands that they’re being overconfident can nonetheless knowingly push their affect in that direction (an open question).