I think this effect will be more wide-spread than targeting only already-vulnerable people, and it is particularly hard to measure because the causes will be decentralised and the effects will be diffuse. I predict it being a larger problem if, in the run-up between narrow AI and ASI, we have a longer period of necessary public discourse and decision-making. If the period is very short then it doesn’t matter. It may not affect many people given how much penetration AI chatbots have in the market before takeoff too.
I think this effect will be more wide-spread than targeting only already-vulnerable people, and it is particularly hard to measure because the causes will be decentralised and the effects will be diffuse. I predict it being a larger problem if, in the run-up between narrow AI and ASI, we have a longer period of necessary public discourse and decision-making. If the period is very short then it doesn’t matter. It may not affect many people given how much penetration AI chatbots have in the market before takeoff too.