this can (roughly) be read as a set of 42 statements that need to be true for us to in fact be doomed, and statistically speaking it seems unlikely that all of these statements are true.
I don’t think these statements all need to be true in order for p(doom) to be high, and I also don’t think they’re independent. Indeed, they seem more disjunctive than conjunctive to me; there are many cases where any one of the claims being true increases risk substantially, even if many others are false.
I don’t think these statements all need to be true in order for p(doom) to be high, and I also don’t think they’re independent. Indeed, they seem more disjunctive than conjunctive to me; there are many cases where any one of the claims being true increases risk substantially, even if many others are false.
I basically agree.
I am arguing against extreme levels of pessimism (~>99% doom).