Use superintelligence to construct a functional model of human biochemistry
Design a virus that exploits human biochemstry
Use one of the currently available biochemistry-as-a-service providers to produce a sample that incubates the virus and then escapes their safety procedures (e.g. pay someone to mix two vials sent to them in the mail. The aerosols from the mixing infect them)
Fine, no problems here. Up to certain level of accuracy I guess
Acquire human DNA sample
Ok. Easy
Use superintelligence to construct a functional model of human biochemistry
By this, I can deduce different things. One, that you assume that this is possible from points one and two. This is nonsense. There are millions of things that are not written in the DNA. Also, you don’t need to acquire a human DNA sample, you just download a fasta file. But, to steelman your argument, let’s say that the superintelligence builds a model of human biochemistry not based on the a human DNA sample but based on the corpus of biochemistry research, which is something that I find plausible. Up to certain level!!! I don’t think that such a model would be flawless or even good enough, but fine
Design a virus that exploits human biochemstry
Here I start having problems believing the argument. Not everything can be computed using simulations guys. The margin of error can be huge. Would you believe in a superintelligence capable of predicting the weather 10 years in advance? If not, what makes you think that creating a virus is an easier problem?
Use one of the currently available biochemistry-as-a-service providers to produce a sample that incubates the virus and then escapes their safety procedures (e.g. pay someone to mix two vials sent to them in the mail. The aerosols from the mixing infect them)
Even if you succeed at this, and there hundreds of alarms that could go off in the meantime, how do you guarantee that the virus kills everyone?
Here I start having problems believing the argument. Not everything can be computed using simulations guys. The margin of error can be huge. Would you believe in a superintelligence capable of predicting the weather 10 years in advance? If not, what makes you think that creating a virus is an easier problem?
Because viruses already exist, and unlike the weather, the effect of a virus on a human body isn’t sensitive to initial conditions the way the weather, a three-body gravitational system, or a double pendulum is. Furthermore, humans have already genetically engineered existing viruses to do things that we want them to do...
how do you guarantee that the virus kills everyone?
You don’t really have to. Killing 19 out of every 20 people in the world would probably work just as well for ensuring the survivors can’t do anything about whatever it is that you want to do.
Would you say that a superintelligence would be capable of predicting the omicron variant from the alpha strain? Are you saying that the evolution of the complex system resulting from the interaction between the virus and the human population is easier to compute than a three body gravitational system? I am not denying that we can create a virus, I am denying that someone or something can create a virus that kills all humans and that the evolution of the system can be known in advance
I see your point. Humans tried to cull the population of (accidentally introduced) rabbits in Australia by using a natural virus that was highly lethal to them; the virus mutated to be less lethal and the rabbit population rebounded.
Solve protein folding problem
Acquire human DNA sample
Use superintelligence to construct a functional model of human biochemistry
Design a virus that exploits human biochemstry
Use one of the currently available biochemistry-as-a-service providers to produce a sample that incubates the virus and then escapes their safety procedures (e.g. pay someone to mix two vials sent to them in the mail. The aerosols from the mixing infect them)
Solve protein folding problem
Fine, no problems here. Up to certain level of accuracy I guess
Acquire human DNA sample
Ok. Easy
Use superintelligence to construct a functional model of human biochemistry
By this, I can deduce different things. One, that you assume that this is possible from points one and two. This is nonsense. There are millions of things that are not written in the DNA. Also, you don’t need to acquire a human DNA sample, you just download a fasta file. But, to steelman your argument, let’s say that the superintelligence builds a model of human biochemistry not based on the a human DNA sample but based on the corpus of biochemistry research, which is something that I find plausible. Up to certain level!!! I don’t think that such a model would be flawless or even good enough, but fine
Design a virus that exploits human biochemstry
Here I start having problems believing the argument. Not everything can be computed using simulations guys. The margin of error can be huge. Would you believe in a superintelligence capable of predicting the weather 10 years in advance? If not, what makes you think that creating a virus is an easier problem?
Use one of the currently available biochemistry-as-a-service providers to produce a sample that incubates the virus and then escapes their safety procedures (e.g. pay someone to mix two vials sent to them in the mail. The aerosols from the mixing infect them)
Even if you succeed at this, and there hundreds of alarms that could go off in the meantime, how do you guarantee that the virus kills everyone?
I am totally unconvinced by this argument
Because viruses already exist, and unlike the weather, the effect of a virus on a human body isn’t sensitive to initial conditions the way the weather, a three-body gravitational system, or a double pendulum is. Furthermore, humans have already genetically engineered existing viruses to do things that we want them to do...
You don’t really have to. Killing 19 out of every 20 people in the world would probably work just as well for ensuring the survivors can’t do anything about whatever it is that you want to do.
Would you say that a superintelligence would be capable of predicting the omicron variant from the alpha strain? Are you saying that the evolution of the complex system resulting from the interaction between the virus and the human population is easier to compute than a three body gravitational system? I am not denying that we can create a virus, I am denying that someone or something can create a virus that kills all humans and that the evolution of the system can be known in advance
I see your point. Humans tried to cull the population of (accidentally introduced) rabbits in Australia by using a natural virus that was highly lethal to them; the virus mutated to be less lethal and the rabbit population rebounded.