Maybe I used the term wrong? I meant tail risks in terms of outcomes, not model uncertainty. Like, if we had all been looser (and honestly if we had all just gotten COVID at the outset) that would have been great in a lot of ways, but what if one of us – say, you or I – got long COVID or died? Was this year worth it if it prevented that?
Re: the “but tail risks” thing, I think that made sense in the first couple months of the pandemic, but stopped making sense by late 2020.
Maybe I used the term wrong? I meant tail risks in terms of outcomes, not model uncertainty. Like, if we had all been looser (and honestly if we had all just gotten COVID at the outset) that would have been great in a lot of ways, but what if one of us – say, you or I – got long COVID or died? Was this year worth it if it prevented that?
A year of lockdown also has a lot of tail risk and the person who had the sepsis death died to tail risk of the lockdown.
Not consuming health care services and mental health consequences of reduced social interactions both have dangerous tail risks.
Oh. In that case I don’t think it ever made sense.