This % chance of change should fold back into your original forecast, but I like that there is something signalling the depth of your confidence.
Though it’s unclear to me if confidence intervals suggest this notation already. If you had less chance of moving your interval, then it would already be a smaller interval, right?
Though it’s unclear to me if confidence intervals suggest this notation already. If you had less chance of moving your interval, then it would already be a smaller interval, right?
Counterexample: if I estimate the size of a tree, I might come up with CI 80 % [5 m, 6 m] by eye-balling it and expect that some friend will do a stronger measurement tomorrow. In that case, CI 80 % [5 m, 6m] still seems fine even though I expect the estimate to narrow down soon.
If the tree is instead from some medieval painting, my CI 80 % [5 m, 6 m] could still be true while I do not expect any significant changes to this estimate.
I think that the credal resilience is mostly the expected ease of gaining (/loosing??) additional information so that it does provides additional info to the current estimates. But there is something to your statement: If I expected that someone could convince me that the tree is actually 20 m tall, this should already be included in my intervals.
This % chance of change should fold back into your original forecast, but I like that there is something signalling the depth of your confidence.
Though it’s unclear to me if confidence intervals suggest this notation already. If you had less chance of moving your interval, then it would already be a smaller interval, right?
Counterexample: if I estimate the size of a tree, I might come up with CI 80 % [5 m, 6 m] by eye-balling it and expect that some friend will do a stronger measurement tomorrow. In that case, CI 80 % [5 m, 6m] still seems fine even though I expect the estimate to narrow down soon.
If the tree is instead from some medieval painting, my CI 80 % [5 m, 6 m] could still be true while I do not expect any significant changes to this estimate.
I think that the credal resilience is mostly the expected ease of gaining (/loosing??) additional information so that it does provides additional info to the current estimates.
But there is something to your statement: If I expected that someone could convince me that the tree is actually 20 m tall, this should already be included in my intervals.