This is a great roundup of recent research, a clear explanation of how one can think about the work of an AI-generated forecast (separating out information retrieval from reasoning), and a lot of very clear and simple pointers to specifically which parts of these papers seem poorly argued or misleading. I certainly changed my mind after reading this post.
I love that LessWrong is a place where people with a lot of experience and knowledge can come to address a current discussion topic and write such a clearly written rebuttal. Yes, there’s a conflict of interest here, but the arguments are clear, and I wonder if we’ll see good counter-rebuttals.
Here’s to more work and arguments on this subject in the future!
Curated.
This is a great roundup of recent research, a clear explanation of how one can think about the work of an AI-generated forecast (separating out information retrieval from reasoning), and a lot of very clear and simple pointers to specifically which parts of these papers seem poorly argued or misleading. I certainly changed my mind after reading this post.
I love that LessWrong is a place where people with a lot of experience and knowledge can come to address a current discussion topic and write such a clearly written rebuttal. Yes, there’s a conflict of interest here, but the arguments are clear, and I wonder if we’ll see good counter-rebuttals.
Here’s to more work and arguments on this subject in the future!