As I understand it, the Metaculus crowd forecast performs as well as it does (relative to individual predictors) in part because it gives greater weight to more recent predictions. If “superhuman” just means “superhumanly up-to-date on the news”, it’s less impressive for an AI to reach that level if it’s also up-to-date on the news when its predictions are collected. (But to be confident that this point applies, I’d have to know the details of the research better.)
As I understand it, the Metaculus crowd forecast performs as well as it does (relative to individual predictors) in part because it gives greater weight to more recent predictions. If “superhuman” just means “superhumanly up-to-date on the news”, it’s less impressive for an AI to reach that level if it’s also up-to-date on the news when its predictions are collected. (But to be confident that this point applies, I’d have to know the details of the research better.)