I think you’re right, for x-risk logical correlation seems irrelevant. So I guess we instead want to know whether voting is good for reducing x-risk assuming that the opportunity cost comes entirely from other x-risk reducing activities, and if not, can a case for voting be made based on both x-risk and other (e.g., selfish) considerations where logical correlation is relevant.
ETA: Ironically, if everyone bought into the CDT argument for not voting based on self interest, much fewer people would vote and it would be a lot easier for people like us to flip elections based on x-risk concerns.
The case would rely on curvature in the sigmoid that describes probability of winning the election as a function of participation. And you’re right, that makes it decidedly a second- or third-order effect; to first order, correlation is irrelevant.
I think you’re right, for x-risk logical correlation seems irrelevant. So I guess we instead want to know whether voting is good for reducing x-risk assuming that the opportunity cost comes entirely from other x-risk reducing activities, and if not, can a case for voting be made based on both x-risk and other (e.g., selfish) considerations where logical correlation is relevant.
ETA: Ironically, if everyone bought into the CDT argument for not voting based on self interest, much fewer people would vote and it would be a lot easier for people like us to flip elections based on x-risk concerns.
The case would rely on curvature in the sigmoid that describes probability of winning the election as a function of participation. And you’re right, that makes it decidedly a second- or third-order effect; to first order, correlation is irrelevant.