I think that a lot of the frames that LW encourages people to adopt (e.g. the frame that the entire future of the human race is likely doomed) contribute strongly to psychological depression and motivational exhaustion. That these frames and memes are based upon careful analysis is beside the point: there are some life-frames that you simply cannot live with, truth be damned.
I don’t think there’s any good reason for thinking that humans are “likely doomed”.
Rather, I think that there is a good chance of humans persisting for a long time—in historical simulations. For one thing, recording the past is a common instrumental value.
I don’t think I am engaging in wishful thinking. Indeed, I would point to the financial incentives of DOOM-mongering as being behind the DOOM conception. DOOM is pumped into people by films and comic books—and after a while some of them actually come to believe it.
DOOM is frightening—and so it gets propagated around a lot—and people earn a living from it—but that doesn’t make it true. Indeed, its spreadability as a meme is a factor that actually makes it less likely to be true.
I don’t think there’s any good reason for thinking that humans are “likely doomed”.
Rather, I think that there is a good chance of humans persisting for a long time—in historical simulations. For one thing, recording the past is a common instrumental value.
I don’t think I am engaging in wishful thinking. Indeed, I would point to the financial incentives of DOOM-mongering as being behind the DOOM conception. DOOM is pumped into people by films and comic books—and after a while some of them actually come to believe it.
DOOM is frightening—and so it gets propagated around a lot—and people earn a living from it—but that doesn’t make it true. Indeed, its spreadability as a meme is a factor that actually makes it less likely to be true.